Decision Space Operations Design Aimed at an Adversary's Decision Making

This monograph develops a framework for focusing military operations at an adversary's decision making processes by developing the concept of decision space, analyzing theories pertaining to decision making (specifically, Boyd's Observe-Orient-Decide-Act Model, the Soviet theory of Reflexive Control, and Klein's Recognition Primed Decision Making Model), synthesizing the development and analysis to produce guiding principles, and providing recommended necessary actions to implement the findings. An understanding of an adversary's decision space, the conceptual location where he envisions paths that lead to successful attainment of his military objectives, provides opportunities to exploit vulnerabilities. The necessary analysis is enabled by five identified characteristics of decision space: the decision maker's imperfect knowledge of the decision space, the near-equivalence of adjacent paths, outcome-based path categorization, the temporally dynamic nature of decision space, and the identification of decision as a necessary precursor to action. Analysis of the decision making process itself reveals additional opportunities to exploit vulnerabilities in four critical sub-processes: orientation to the environment, filtering information from the environment, development of paths in decision space, and path evaluation. General principles (termed Elements of Cognitive Campaign Design), derived from the analysis, provide the tools necessary to design military operations that can exploit these vulnerabilities in an adversary's decision making process. The four principles are: Robust Simulation, Cognitive Lines of Operation, Timing, and Fluid Execution. In order to implement the framework developed in this monograph, the first and most important requirement is the development of the capability to accurately simulate the decision making processes of potential adversaries. Second, the concepts presented here must be examined, debated, and eventually incorporated into operat