The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Failm - but Some Don't

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  • Engels
  • Paperback
  • 9780143125082
  • 03 februari 2015
  • 536 pagina's
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Nate Silver

"Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. In April 2018, ABC News became FiveThirtyEight's new home, replacing ESPN.

(Bron: Wikipedia. Beschikbaar onder de licentie Creative Commons Naamsvermelding/Gelijk delen.)"

Samenvatting

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER One of the more momentous books of the decade. -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox : The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Productspecificaties

Inhoud

Taal
en
Bindwijze
Paperback
Oorspronkelijke releasedatum
03 februari 2015
Aantal pagina's
536
Illustraties
Nee

Betrokkenen

Hoofdauteur
Nate Silver
Tweede Auteur
Nate Silver
Hoofduitgeverij
Penguin Usa

Overige kenmerken

Extra groot lettertype
Nee
Product breedte
140 mm
Product hoogte
32 mm
Product lengte
216 mm
Studieboek
Ja
Verpakking breedte
220 mm
Verpakking hoogte
30 mm
Verpakking lengte
220 mm
Verpakkingsgewicht
518 g

EAN

EAN
9780143125082

Reviews

Gemiddelde van 5 reviews
3
2
0
0
0
  • Less and less wrong

    Positieve punten

    • Heldere boodschap
    • Praktisch toepasbaar
    • originele visie

    Less and less wrong

    In our knowledge about the world, Newtonian mechanics is an exception. It allows you to make such precise predictions that you can send a man to the moon and bring him back safely. Outside physics however, unpredictability reigns: a plane flies into the World Trade Center one sunny morning, the prestigious Goldman Sachs bank goes tits up and Germany ends up as Weltmeister. Who would have guessed that?
    Nate Silver, a 35-year old statistician at the New York Times, has written a remarkable and far-reaching book on our attempts to get to grips with the whimsical world we live in. Silver earned himself quite a reputation in the 2012 election by correctly predicting the results of all 50 states. He also likes betting on baseball games and playing poker. Here is a man who really loves to see the dice roll. His book The Signal and the Noise ranges over disciplines as diverse as economy, politics, sports, weather forecasting, finance and more. The central question is all this is 'the art and science of prediction'. Since making correct predictions is what practical knowledge is all about and what drives progress.
    Silver starts out by analysing prediction failures such as the banking crisis and the frequently mistaking experts on television whose main quality seems to be their lack of recollection.
    He then moves into the natural sciences with topics as weather forecasting (the major success story in this book), earthquakes and spread of infectious diseases. What makes predicting in one discipline different from another?
    Silver then introduces his hero Thomas Bayes who devised a simple method to improve you predictions about the world. It applies to anything from the probability of breast cancer to the chance of being cheated upon when you spot a long blond hair on your boyfriend's jacket. Bayesian logic (a short mathematical formula) may seem to be tailored to our times of big data and the digitation and storage of everything and everybody, but it actually stems from an 18th century statistician and Presbyterian minister who followed the empiricism philosophy of David Hume.
    Bayes' theorem forces you to make a prior estimate of a probability of an event taking place (you bicycle being nicked for example) which may be refined with every following experience. Even if you start out with a wild guess, you end up being less and less wrong about the chances.
    This is an exceptional book. Not only for the scope of subjects, but also for the completely new view on knowledge theory that Silver presents. It's a timely book as well since we've never had so much information at our disposal and most of us are frankly a bit at loss with what to do with it. "We think we want information", Silver writes, "when we really want knowledge. The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth. This is a book about the signal and the noise." (JW)

    Vond je dit een nuttige review?
    2
    0
  • Interessant, leesbaar, leerzaam

    Boek gekocht op aanraden van een vriend vanwege onze statistische achtergrond. Het is een fijn boek, hoewel ik sommige afkortingen en termen niet zo snel terug kon vinden. Verder leest het prettig door de gestructureerde uitleg van de onderwerpen die worden behandeld (zoals de housing bubble in Amerika) en is het behalve ontspannend om te lezen, ook een leerzaam boek. Ik raad het boek aan aan iedereen die regelmatig in aanraking komt met statistiek (al is het minimaal) of er interesse in heeft.

    Vond je dit een nuttige review?
    0
    0
  • Aanrader

    Positieve punten

    • Overzichtelijk
    • Praktisch toepasbaar
    • Heldere boodschap

    Aanrader

    Vond je dit een nuttige review?
    0
    0
  • Scherpe uitleg!

    Positieve punten

    • Grappig

    Scherp!

    Vond je dit een nuttige review?
    0
    0
  • Must read voor iedereen!

    Positieve punten

    • Heldere boodschap
    • Volledig
    • verhelderend
    • Confronterend
    • Leerzaam
    • Confronterend
    • Leerzaam
    Toon alleen de eerste 3 punten

    Haalt persoonlijke blindspots weg door het gebruik van veel bekende wereld issues gebaseerd op data en kritisch omgaan met data. Is het ruis of net niet (signaal).

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