Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER

From the Nobel Prize-winning author ofThinking, Fast and Slowandthe coauthor ofNudge,a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better onesa tour de force' (New York Times).

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patientsor that two judges in the same courthouse givemarkedlydifferent sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firmmake different decisions aboutindistinguishable job applicantsor that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens toanswerthephone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the samecustomer service agentmakes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunsteinshowthedetrimental effects of noisein many fields, including medicine, law,economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection.Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet,most of the time, individuals and organizations alikeare unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds ofresearch-basedinsights that made Thinking, Fast and Slowand Nudgegroundbreaking New York Timesbestsellers, Noiseexplains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgmentand what we can do about it.