Deciphering the Balkan Enigma Using History to Inform Policy: (Revised Edition)

After having been fueled by the events of the distant and recent past, the current wars in the former Yugoslavia finally may be grinding to a halt. An understanding of that past, and of how history and myth combine to influence the present and help to define the future in the Balkans, is no less relevant today than it was two years ago when the original version of this monograph was published. Events of the intervening years have largely validated the insights and conclusions offered in the initial report. That said, strategic conditions have evolved, and two years of additional study and analysis provide a greater understanding of the long-term roots of conflict in the Balkans, as well as a firmer grasp of the proximate historical factors that contributed to the outbreak of violence. Despite the revisions, the focus of the monograph remains on the tangled history of the region, and how policy options fit into the larger historical context that has influenced, and will continue to affect, the course of events in the Balkans. The primary purpose of this monograph is not to argue for or against U.S. military intervention in the former Yugoslavia or elsewhere in the Balkans. The main intent is to garner insights through historical examination that will shed light on the long-standing bases of the ongoing conflicts in the region. Some might question the relevancy of an historical exploration when the first European war since 1945 engulfs the former Yugoslavia and threatens to spill over to other parts of the Balkans. The purpose of historical study, however, is not simply to understand the past, but to inform the present and, hopefully, prepare for the future. Nor is this report simply an academic exercise. Proponents of single-issue solutions, such as "surgical" air strikes, economic sanctions, lifting the arms embargo, or enforcement of "no-fly" zones neither comprehend the complexities of the issues involved nor address the root causes of conflict. Policymakers and analysts should seek, instead, comprehensive solutions to the multiple, interwoven sources of the conflict. As anyone familiar with problem solving understands, a comprehensive solution first requires a definition of the fundamental nature of the problem. Without an adequate understanding of the problem and its ramifications, proposed solutions may not address issues adequately to ensure resolution. Moreover, what on first consideration seems a relatively straight-forward solution may actually prove counterproductive when implemented. The intent of this report is also to get beyond the emotional headlines of the day and to open the eyes of policymakers to local perceptions; as everyone should know, perception is reality in the eyes of the beholder. An understanding of perceptions will also help policymakers grapple with the underlying currents which run so deep in the Balkans and avoid the pitfall of mirror imaging their own ideas, values, and perceptions onto a radically different culture. Only through an understanding of these conditions can policymakers make informed decisions on the best ends, ways, and means to resolve the situation. As importantly, historical example may offer potential insights into second or third order consequences that may result from any decisions. In this revised monograph, the first four chapters that provide the historical examination of the Balkan enigma remain substantially unchanged. The last chapter of the original version has been expanded into three chapters. Chapter 5 first offers insights that are drawn from the first portion of the report. Because the passage of time has foreclosed some alternatives, and the changed strategic conditions have created the possibility for new options to be examined, the policy assessments that are now Chapter 6 have been substantially rewritten. Similarly, a new Chapter 7, Conclusions, contains revised reflections on the preceding analysis.