What Deters and Why The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait

"As part of a series of reports in which RAND researchers examine the established concepts of deterrence and develop a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships, this report explores two ongoing examples of extended deterrence. In particular, RAND researchers apply the established framework to U.S. efforts to deter North Korean aggression against South Korea and U.S. efforts to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. The researchers conclude that the state of deterrence in Korea is healthy, and all examined variables (including those related to North Korea's motivations and the clarity and credibility of the U.S. deterrence message) are robust or effective. In contrast, the state of deterrence with regard to China and Taiwan is mixed. Many of the variables governing capability, commitment, and national will appear to have degraded over the past two decades, leaving only China's motivations as the major barrier to a seriously imperiled deterrence posture."--RAND.org