Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing handbooks. Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins. The techniques include: Getting Started Checklist; Customer Checklist; Issue Redefinition; Chronologies and Timelines; Sorting; Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing; Matrices; Network Analysis; Mind Maps and Concept Maps; Process Maps and Gantt Charts; Structured Brainstorming; Virtual Brainstorming; Nominal Group Technique; Starbursting; Cross-Impact Matrix; Morphological Analysis; Quadrant Crunching; Basic Scenario Analysis; Alternative Futures Analysis; Multiple Scenario Generation; Indicators; Indicators Validator; Simple Hypothesis; Multiple Hypotheses Generator; and, Quadrant Hypothesis Generation. The techniques also include: Diagnostic Reasoning; Analysis of Competing Hypotheses; Argument Mapping; Deception Detection; Key Assumptions Check; Structured Analogies; Role Playing; Red Hat Analysis; Outside-In Thinking; Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model; Prediction Markets; Premortem Analysis; Structured Self-Critique; What If? Analysis; High Impact/Low Probability Analysis; Devil's Advocacy; Red Team Analysis; Delphi Method; Adversarial Collaboration; Structured Debate; Complexity Manager; Decision Matrix; Force Field Analysis; Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes; and, SWOT Analysis.