SUPERFORECASTING {OSI} The Art and Science of Prediction
Afbeeldingen
Sla de afbeeldingen overArtikel vergelijken
- Engels
- Hardcover
- 9780804136693
- 29 september 2015
- 352 pagina's
Samenvatting
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST
The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic.
The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic.
Productspecificaties
Wij vonden geen specificaties voor jouw zoekopdracht '{SEARCH}'.
Inhoud
- Taal
- en
- Bindwijze
- Hardcover
- Oorspronkelijke releasedatum
- 29 september 2015
- Aantal pagina's
- 352
- Illustraties
- Met illustraties
Betrokkenen
- Hoofdauteur
- Professor Philip E Tetlock
- Tweede Auteur
- Dan Gardner
- Hoofduitgeverij
- Crown Publishing Group (Ny)
Overige kenmerken
- Extra groot lettertype
- Nee
- Studieboek
- Nee
- Verpakking breedte
- 164 mm
- Verpakking hoogte
- 34 mm
- Verpakking lengte
- 247 mm
- Verpakkingsgewicht
- 579 g
EAN
- EAN
- 9780804136693
Je vindt dit artikel in
- Categorieën
- Boek, ebook of luisterboek?
- Boek
- Taal
- Engels
- Beschikbaarheid
- Leverbaar
- Studieboek of algemeen
- Algemene boeken
Kies gewenste uitvoering
Bindwijze
: Hardcover
Prijsinformatie en bestellen
De prijs van dit product is 21 euro. Dit is een tweedehands product.Alleen tweedehands
Goed
Boek in goede staat, wat lichte sporen van gebruik oa aan de randen van de stofomslag.
Boek in goede staat, wat lichte sporen van gebruik oa aan de randen van de stofomslag.
1 - 2 weken
Verkoop door
Deboekenvanwouter.nl
- Bestellen en betalen via bol
- Prijs inclusief verzendkosten, verstuurd door Deboekenvanwouter.nl
- 30 dagen bedenktijd en gratis retourneren
Shop dit artikel
Anderen bekeken ook
Vaak samen gekocht
Rapporteer dit artikel
Je wilt melding doen van illegale inhoud over dit artikel:
- Ik wil melding doen als klant
- Ik wil melding doen als autoriteit of trusted flagger
- Ik wil melding doen als partner
- Ik wil melding doen als merkhouder
Geen klant, autoriteit, trusted flagger, merkhouder of partner? Gebruik dan onderstaande link om melding te doen.