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Expert Political Judgment - How Good Is It? How Can We Know? How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition

Name: Expert Political Judgment - How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Author: Philip E. Tetlock

Auteur: Philip E. Tetlock

Taal: Engels

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Auteur: Philip E. Tetlock Philip Tetlock

Engels
Paperback
9780691175973
29 augustus 2017
352 pagina's

Alle productspecificaties

Samenvatting

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Productspecificaties

Inhoud

Taal: en
Bindwijze: Paperback
Oorspronkelijke releasedatum: 29 augustus 2017
Aantal pagina's: 352
Illustraties: Nee

Betrokkenen

Hoofdauteur: Philip E. Tetlock
Tweede Auteur: Philip Tetlock
Hoofduitgeverij: Princeton University Press

Vertaling

Originele titel: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Overige kenmerken

Editie: Revised edition
Extra groot lettertype: Nee
Product breedte: 152 mm
Product lengte: 235 mm
Studieboek: Ja
Verpakking breedte: 155 mm
Verpakking hoogte: 25 mm
Verpakking lengte: 234 mm
Verpakkingsgewicht: 539 g

EAN

EAN: 9780691175973

Je vindt dit artikel in

Categorieën: Mens & Maatschappij

Persoonlijke ontwikkeling & Mindfulness

Psychologie

Politiek

Populaire psychologie

Sociale psychologie

Boeken
Taal: Engels
Boek, ebook of luisterboek?: Boek
Studieboek of algemeen: Algemene boeken
Beschikbaarheid: Leverbaar

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