The Missing Billionaires A Guide to Better Financial Decisions

Praise for The Missing Billionaires

“How much investment risk should I take? How much should I spend, and how much should I save? We all want answers to these questions, and financial economists have them, but the answers need to be translated into practical language. That’s exactly why you should read this enjoyable and insightful book, to understand and apply the best thinking about risk-taking and lifetime financial planning.”
—John Y. Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics at Harvard University

“Through years of dialogue with Victor and James, I have put into practice the ideas described in this book, and to great effect. They present a framework which encompasses many of the important principles I have learned through my nearly four decades of trading experience. The Missing Billionaires should be required reading at every bank, hedge fund and investment firm focused on enduring success.”
—Alan Howard, Founder of Brevan Howard

“This book provides a thought-provoking, straightforward introduction to some of the most important questions in personal finance, and an engaging, non-technical description of some of the answers provided by financial economists over the past fifty years.”
—Robert C. Merton, MIT Sloan School of Management Distinguished Professor of Finance, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences

“Haghani and White persuasively explain that to make good decisions under uncertainty, not only must we think probabilistically, but also we must apply those probabilities to the appropriate objective function. Thinking beyond the plight of the ‘missing billionaires,’ perhaps human history would have followed a gentler and more peaceful path if our leaders had made decisions with the ideas of this book in mind.”
—Philip E. Tetlock, Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, and co-founder of The Good Judgment Project

An Economist Best Book of the Year

"Making Money and Keeping It" – The Wall Street Journal

Over the past century, if the wealthiest families had spent a reasonable fraction of their wealth, paid taxes, invested in the stock market, and passed their wealth down to the next generation, there would be tens of thousands of billionaire heirs to generations-old fortunes today. The puzzle of The Missing Billionaires is why you cannot find one such billionaire on any current rich list. There are a number of explanations, but this book is focused on one mistake which is of profound importance to all investors: poor risk decisions, both in investing and spending. Many of these families didn’t choose bad investments– they sized them incorrectly– and allowed their spending decisions to amplify this mistake.

The Missing Billionaires book offers a simple yet powerful framework for making important lifetime financial decisions in a systematic and rational way. It's for readers with a baseline level of financial literacy, but doesn’t require a PhD. It fills the gap between personal finance books and the academic literature, bringing the valuable insights of academic finance to non-specialists.

Part One builds the theory of optimal investment sizing from first principles, starting with betting on biased coins. Part Two covers lifetime financial decision-making, with emphasis on the integration of investment, saving and spending decisions. Part Three covers practical implementation details, including how to calibrate your personal level of risk-aversion, and how to estimate the expected return and risk on a broad spectrum of investments.

The book is packed with case studies and anecdotes, including one about Victor’s investment with LTCM as a partner, and a bonus chapter on Liar’s Poker. The authors draw extensively on their own experiences as principals of Elm Wealth, a multi-billion-dollar wealth management practice, and prior to that on their years as arbitrage traders– Victor at Salomon Brothers and LTCM, and James at Nationsbank/CRT and Citadel.

Whether you are young and building wealth, an entrepreneur invested heavily in your own business, or at a stage where your primary focus is investing and spending, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions is your must-have resource for thoughtful financial decision-making.